Search results for " Predictive modelling"

showing 3 items of 3 documents

Probabilité d'apparition d'un phénomène parasitaire et choix de modèles de régression logistique

2007

Epidemiological processes are now using spatial statistics and modelling tools. The main objective of most health risks studies consists in identifying potential contamination sources and factors capable of explaining their localization. Health data often prove binary (typically presence/absence) and specific methods such as binary logistic regression have to be used. This method's output consists in a probability for the pathogen of interest. A posterior classification of each sample is then conducted using a probability threshold. The method used to maximize this threshold is called the ROC curve which consists in giving a representation of the behaviour of the model and then to choose th…

Spatial epidemiology Binary logistic regression ROC curves Predictive modelling[SHS.GEO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography[SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/GeographyÉpidémiologie spatiale Régression logistique binaire Courbes ROC Modélisation prédictive[ SHS.GEO ] Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography
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Geospatial modelling and map analysis allowed measuring regression of the upper limit of Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows under human pressure

2018

Abstract Marine coastal ecosystems are facing structural and functional changes due to the increasing human footprint worldwide, and the assessment of their long-term changes becomes particularly challenging. Measures of change can be done by comparing the observed ecosystem status to a purposely defined reference condition. In this paper, a geospatial modelling approach based on 2D mapping and morphodynamic data was used to predict the natural position of the upper limit (i.e., the landward continuous front) of Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows settled on soft bottom. This predictive model, formerly developed at the regional spatial scale, was here applied for the first time at the Medit…

Settore BIO/07 - Ecologia0106 biological sciencesMediterranean climateGeospatial analysis010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciencesMediterranean sea Morphodynamic sPosidonia oceanica Predictive modelling Reference conditions SeagrassAquatic ScienceOceanographycomputer.software_genre01 natural sciencesMorphodynamicZoologíaEcosystemSeagrasssPosidonia oceanica0105 earth and related environmental sciencesbiology010604 marine biology & hydrobiologySeagraPredictive modellingFragmentation (computing)Posidonia oceanicaReference conditionsbiology.organism_classificationSeagrass;Predictive modelling;Reference conditions;Morphodynamics;Posidonia oceanica;Mediterranean seaMorphodynamicsRegressionSeagrassPosidonia oceanicaSettore BIO/03 - Botanica Ambientale E ApplicataMediterranean seaSpatial ecologyEnvironmental scienceReference conditionPhysical geographycomputerEstuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science
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Environmental suitability model for the lanner falcon Falco biarmicus feldeggii: planning, study and monitoring the Sicilian population

2017

The identification of suitable areas, by spatially explicit distribution models, is crucial for conservation of threatened species as the lanner falcon Falco biarmicus feldeggii. Monitoring and collecting data on lanner falcon during years has proven to be essential for better defining the areas of species environmental suitability. Recent research shows that breeding performances of this species are strongly influenced by bioclimatic factors, especially monthly temperature and rainfall, or linked to landscape morphology, such as the slope of territories. These environmental parameters combined with species productivity (number of fledged juveniles per checked pair) of geo-referenced breedi…

Falco biarmicus feldeggii environmental suitability predictive modelling GISSettore BIO/05 - Zoologia
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